A recent survey by IPK International shows, amongst other things, how international tourism in 2016 will be influenced by fears of terrorism and political unrest. The following is an extract from their press release.
Current political unrest and terror attacks likely to influence the tourism sector
IPK International conducted a special survey in February 2016 in the 42 most important source markets worldwide for international tourism among 50.000 respondents. The study revealed that for 40 percent of international travelers, the recent instability and terror warnings will have an influence on their travel plans for 2016. However, the survey exhibits regional differences between Europe, Asia as well as North and South America. Moreover, the survey examined what kind of influence the situation could have on the travel behavior. Hence, 15% of international travelers indicated that they will not travel abroad in 2016 or will only go on domestic trips within their own country. A further 25% stated that they will still be travelling abroad, yet only to destinations they perceive as safe. This obviously leads to the crucial question of what destinations are perceived as safe? In this context, IPK International also gained interesting insights into what destinations have a safe image, and there are quite some big differences. Therefore, IPK expects demand shifts to occur in 2016, with both, high growth potentials for some, but also high risks for others.
Outlook 2016
“Worldwide we expect global outbound trips to increase by 3 percent. However, without the im-pact of terrorism these days, we would be able to predict a growth rate of 4.5 percent”, explains Rolf Freitag during his ITB presentation on March 9. The recent terrorist attacks have consequent-ly led to an unusually large uncertainty when planning a trip in 2016. According to the World Travel Monitor®, Asians will again travel more abroad in 2016, although at a lower growth rate compared to previous years. In contrast to China and India, Japan however could see some declines. Slight growth from the US is possible, whereas a decline in Canada cannot be ruled out. In 2016, despite terror fears, international travel of Europeans is expected to continuously show a moderate positive trend. A growing demand is emerging from the Netherlands, UK, Switzerland and Germany – yet declines are to be expected from Russia, Greece and Italy. Overall, IPK International’s Outbound Travel Forecast for 2016 predicts an increase of 4% from Asia and 2% from Europe, while a stagnation is expected for outbound travel from the Americas.